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JapaneseSupporting a super-aging society with dignity – AI transforms prevention, monitoring, and care.
By 2040, the elderly population is projected to peak, leading to a significant shortage of care workers. Technology is not needed to replace human labour; rather, it needs to direct those insufficient resources to the moments when they are most needed.
The number of people who need support continues to increase, but the number of people providing that support cannot keep up. Japan’s elderly care system is facing this reality earlier than any other country in the world.
Japan has the highest aging rate in the world, and it is estimated that by 2040, people aged 65 and over will account for approximately 35% of the population (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare). In that year, when the elderly population will peak, approximately 2.72 million care workers will be needed. On the other hand, the actual number in fiscal year 2022 was approximately 2.15 million, and if the current situation continues, a shortage of approximately 570,000 is expected.
The critical point of 2040
Approximately 35%
This is the estimated percentage of the population aged 65 and over by 2040. The aging rate is among the highest in the world.
2.72 million
people
The estimated number of care workers needed in fiscal year 2040 (actual number in fiscal year 2022 was approximately 2.15 million).
Approximately 570,000 people
If the current situation continues, there will be a shortage of care workers by fiscal year 2040. A net increase of 63,000 people per year is needed.
Figure 1: Approximately 2.72 million care workers will be needed in fiscal year 2040. The difference from the actual number in fiscal year 2022 is about 570,000, and to bridge this gap, an increase of approximately 63,000 workers per year will be required. There are limits to solving this problem by relying solely on securing manpower.
The shortage is not just a matter of “numbers”
Task 1
Increased demand and a decline in the number of workers are progressing simultaneously.
As the number of people being supported increases, the number of working-age people providing that support decreases. It is structurally difficult to bridge the supply-demand gap solely through measures to secure personnel.
Task 2
The response tends to be limited to “after it gets heavy.”
Responding after symptoms become apparent places a greater burden on both the individual and the caregiver. If symptoms are detected at the early stages, the risk of the condition becoming severe can be reduced.
Task 3
Burden of record-keeping and indirect tasks
Even in caregiving settings, indirect tasks such as record-keeping and reporting are encroaching on the time that can be spent providing care.
Bringing human help to the moment it’s needed most.
The role of technology is not to replace the warmth of care with machines. Rather, it is to take on the burden of tasks such as monitoring and record-keeping, allowing human hands to focus on the kind of “face-to-face care” that only humans can provide.
Remote monitoring and predictive detection
Sensors and data detect changes in daily routines and signs of anomalies, allowing people to intervene only when necessary. The system shifts from constant monitoring to a mechanism that notices when needed.
Support for prevention and prevention of severe illness
By intervening early based on changes in health data, we aim to prevent hospitalization and the progression of the need for long-term care. Our focus shifts from “curing” to “prevention.”
Reducing record-keeping and indirect tasks
By reducing indirect tasks through voice input and automated recording, we can reclaim time to focus on providing care.
Continuing to live at home and in the community
By remotely monitoring your condition, we support you in living in your familiar surroundings for longer and more safely.
Figure 2: A shift from “treating after the condition worsens” to “detecting early signs and preventing severe complications.” AI connects limited human resources to a cycle of monitoring → early sign detection → early intervention → prevention of severe complications.
“Dignified care is not about being constantly watched, but about being quietly supported when needed. Technology is a tool for designing the right distance to achieve that”.
Distribute the missing hands wisely
2040 is not a distant future. It is an urgent issue that we must start designing now, or we will be too late. Over the past four installments, we have looked at different fields: emergency medicine, work styles, diagnostic imaging, and elderly care. What they all have in common is the perspective that AI will work not as a “replacement for humans,” but as an “amplifier of human capabilities.” In this final installment, we will address why these excellent concepts do not continue in practice – the conditions for implementing, gaining trust in, and continuously operating medical AI.
